SDM received two comments from Clerk Harvey Ruvin asking for us to call him to discuss our post, Harvey Ruvin’s Sea Level Rise Hysteria. In that post, SDM argued that Mr. Ruvin’s moonlighting as a hawker of a phony sea level rise threat to Miami could hurt us if insurers begin to rate us differently. SDM went on to argue that we ought to retire Mr. Ruvin based on his insisting the sky is falling (err…the water is rising?) when it clearly isn’t.
Apparently Mr. Ruvin took issue and asked SDM to call him so he could berate or argue with us. We don’t take calls, as the innumerable folks who have demanded we call them already know, because we are anonymous. Calling you, Mr. Ruvin, would screw that up.
But, your call got us to thinking about what has changed since our September post and surprisingly much has.
For example, just a few days ago, the world learned that we just passed 18 years without any global temperature increase:
We also learned that the theory that the deep ocean has absorbed the hypothetical global heat does not bear out when actual measurements are taken.
All of these data coincide precisely with the observations of sea level from Key West, which has the best information for our region (the Miami Beach station was retired so it doesn’t reflect data from the last two decades):
The mean sea level trend is 2.24 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 0.16 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from 1913 to 2006 which is equivalent to a change of 0.73 feet in 100 years.
Note that the Key West readings are trending at an increase of less than 1 foot per century and that the trend has been steady for the entire measurement period.
The other thing that is important to note is that NONE of the models Mr. Ruvin and his group rely upon as gospel for cataclysmic sea level rise predicted the results actually measured in real time. None.
So why is SDM so angry about Mr. Ruvin’s avocation as a climatologist? Consider the following.
If you live in Palmetto Bay – or anywhere in the United States that has flood exposure, for that matter – your community is rated under the National Flood Insurance Program Community Rating System. Your flood insurance rate is based at least in part upon how many feet above mean sea level your real property sits.
Thus, if Harvey Ruvin is right and mean sea level is going to rise according to what the “experts” in the local climate change scientific community claim, then we are looking at changes in mean sea level as follows:
Instead of charging us rates based on actual sea level rise (i.e., just under one inch per decade or 6 inches by 2060), what is to stop the government or private companies from using Mr. Ruvin’s “scientific consensus” (9-24 inches by 2060) to justify higher rates? Most insurers probably think Mr. Ruvin was heaven-sent.
Now, We understand Mr. Ruvin’s passion. He was an early advocate when the ozone layer was the big deal. Now, he’s latched on to climate change. We as voters – if we were paying attention – knew what we were getting when we voted him into office. Perhaps we were a little hasty.
SDM Says: Mr. Ruvin seems oblivious to the damage he could do – or may have already done – to Palmetto Bay, Cutler Bay and Pinecrest homeowners if our flood insurance rates were to be calculated based upon a bunch of faulty computer models. It’s the kind of damage you can’t cure with a phone call either.